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Aerosol exposure assessment during reclaimed water utilization in China and risk evaluation in case of

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第7期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-021-1516-1

摘要：

• The Chinese population exposure habits were surveyed.

关键词： Legionella     QMRA     Reclaimed water     Aerosol     Water reuse    

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风险矩阵法在武器装备采办风险评估中的运用

李忠民,魏一鸣,汤淑春,陈健

《中国工程科学》 2006年 第8卷 第6期   页码 95-99

摘要：

在对国外广泛采用的风险矩阵评估方法进行全面分析和系统总结的基础上，对风险矩阵方法在我国武器装备采办风险评估中的运用进行了探讨，并从风险影响和风险概率两个准则入手，以某武器型号采办为例示范性地进行了风险评估，从而为制定科学合理的武器装备采办风险管理提供决策依据。

关键词： 风险矩阵方法     风险评估     武器装备采办    

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Detection of schedule delay risk of empirical construction projects

Tsegay GEBREHIWET, Hanbin LUO

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2018年 第5卷 第2期   页码 251-267 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2018086

摘要： In Ethiopian construction projects, schedule delay risk is a predominant issue because it is not properly addressed. Although several studies have been focused on the various effects of risk in construction projects, limited efforts have been made to investigate the typical and the overall schedule delay risk. In this study, our aim is to detect the typical and overall schedule delay risk throughout the construction project lifecycle, which consists of the pre-construction, construction, and post-construction stages, and compare the stages with each other. Common criteria, sub-criteria, and attributes were developed for all alternatives for the purpose of making a risk decision. The methodology that was followed integrated the multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process comprehensive evaluation (FAHPCE) and the relative important index (RII). Data were collected from 77 participants, who were selected through purposive sampling from different contracting organizations in Ethiopian construction projects by means of questionnaires that were distributed to experienced experts. The findings showed that there is a typical delay risk either in the type or in the level of the different construction activities. Consequently, the most influenced alternative is the construction stage because of the high-risk responsibility, resource, and contract condition related criteria. The post-construction stage was the second most influenced stage because of the high-risk responsibility-related criteria. The pre-constructed stage was the least influenced stage that consist high-risk criteria of responsibility, resource, and contract condition related. These differences provided noteworthy information about risk mitigation in construction projects by identifying the exact risk level on specific activity to make appropriate decision.

关键词： fuzzy analytic hierarchy process comprehensive evaluation     construction project     detection of delay risk     relative important index    

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Risk evaluation for the task transfer of an aircraft maintenance program based on a multielement connection

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0282-0

摘要： This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the efficacy and suitability of maintenance programs with a focus on quantitative risk assessment in the domain of aircraft maintenance task transfer. The analysis is anchored in the principles of Maintenance Steering Group-3 (MSG-3) logic decision paradigms. The paper advances a holistic risk assessment index architecture tailored for the task transfer of maintenance programs. Utilizing the analytic network process (ANP), the study quantifies the weight interrelationships among diverse variables, incorporating expert-elicited subjective weighting. A multielement connection number-based evaluative model is employed to characterize decision-specific data, thereby facilitating the quantification of task transfer-associated risk through the appraisal of set-pair potentials. Moreover, the paper conducts a temporal risk trend analysis founded on partial connection numbers of varying orders. This analytical construct serves to streamline the process of risk assessment pertinent to maintenance program task transfer. The empirical component of this research, exemplified through a case study of the Boeing 737NG aircraft maintenance program, corroborates the methodological robustness and pragmatic applicability of the proposed framework in the quantification and analysis of mission transfer risk.

关键词： risk evaluation     maintenance steering group     analytic network process     task transfer     maintenance program    

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A novel method for reliability and risk evaluation of wind energy conversion systems considering wind

Seyed Mohsen MIRYOUSEFI AVAL,Amir AHADI,Hosein HAYATI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第1期   页码 46-56 doi: 10.1007/s11708-015-0384-4

摘要： This paper investigates an analytical approach for the reliability modeling of doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbines. At present, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, wind speed and wind turbine generator outage have not been addressed simultaneously. In this paper, a novel methodology based on the Weibull-Markov method is proposed for evaluating the probabilistic reliability of the bulk electric power systems, including DFIG wind turbines, considering wind speed and wind turbine generator outage. The proposed model is presented in terms of appropriate wind speed modeling as well as capacity outage probability table (COPT), considering component failures of the wind turbine generators. Based on the proposed method, the COPT of the wind farm has been developed and utilized on the IEEE RBTS to estimate the well-known reliability and sensitive indices. The simulation results reveal the importance of inclusion of wind turbine generator outage as well as wind speed in the reliability assessment of the wind farms. Moreover, the proposed method reduces the complexity of using analytical methods and provides an accurate reliability model for the wind turbines. Furthermore, several case studies are considered to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in practical applications.

关键词： doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG)     composite system adequacy assessment     wind speed correlation    

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Evaluation of the relative risk of stroke in patients with hypertension using cerebrovascular hemodynamic

HUANG Jiuyi, WANG Guiqing, GUO Jiping, CAO Yifeng, WANG Yan, YANG Yongju, YU Xuehai

《医学前沿（英文）》 2007年 第1卷 第3期   页码 274-278 doi: 10.1007/s11684-007-0052-0

摘要： The relative risk (RR) of stroke in patients with hypertension was evaluated by using synthetic index of cerebrovascular hemodynamics. A total of 7,371 patients with hypertension with ages ≥40 years were selected from a population-based cohort study of the risk factors for stroke. The data on the baseline investigation of risk factors, the determination of cerebrovascular hemodynamic parameters (CVHP), and stroke follow-up were analyzed. The RR of stroke in patients with hypertension was evaluated by CVHP scores. Univariate analysis indicated that hypertension, complicated by other risk factors, had significant statistical association with the onset of stroke. RRs for stroke when hypertension complicated with decrease of hemodynamic scores, heart disease, cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption were 4.93 (95%CI, 3.26–7.45), 1.90 (95%CI, 1.36–2.66), 1.99 (95%CI, 1.42–2.79) and 1.73 (95%CI, 1.19–2.53) respectively. In multivariate analysis, hemodynamic score, age, sex, cigarette smoking, family history of stroke and systolic blood pressure were selected by the Cox regression for inclusion in the final analysis. Among them, the RR of hemodynamic score was highest. The analysis of doseresponse relationships indicated that when the hemodynamic scores in patients with hypertension were lower than 75 points, the RR of stroke at 75, 60, 45, 30 and 15 points were 2.85, 4.43, 4.54, 5.40 and 9.88, respectively. The risk of stroke in patients with hypertension is closely asso ciated with hemodynamic impairment and the hemodynamic score may be used for quantitative evaluation of relative risks of stroke.

关键词： inclusion     quantitative evaluation     cerebrovascular     relative     decrease    

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Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty

Zeying GUI,Chenglong ZHANG,Mo Li,Ping GUO

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2015年 第2卷 第3期   页码 205-215 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2015073

摘要： The main characteristic of the water resources system (WRS) is its great complexity and uncertainty, which makes it highly desirable to carry out a risk analysis of the WRS. The natural environmental, social economic conditions as well as limitations of human cognitive ability are possible sources of the uncertainties that need to be taken into account in the risk analysis process. In this paper the inherent stochastic uncertainty and cognitive subjective uncertainty of the WRS are discussed first, from both objective and subjective perspectives. Then the quantitative characterization methods of risk analysis are introduced, including three criteria (reliability, resiliency and vulnerability) and five basic optimization models (the expected risk value model, conditional value at risk model, chance-constrained risk model, minimizing probability of risk events model, and the multi-objective optimization model). Finally, this paper focuses on the various methods of risk analysis under uncertainty, which are summarized as random, fuzzy and mixed methods. A more comprehensive risk analysis methodology for the WRS is proposed based on the comparison of the advantages, disadvantages and applicable conditions of these three methods. This paper provides a decision support of risk analysis for researchers, policy makers and stakeholders of the WRS.

关键词： water resources system     evaluation criterion     optimization model     risk analysis method     uncertainty    

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渤海海峡隧道TBM 施工风险评估及关键风险对策探讨

李达,洪开荣,谭忠盛

《中国工程科学》 2013年 第15卷 第12期   页码 95-100

摘要：

本文以渤海海峡隧道设想方案的施工风险为评估对象，采用层次分析法（AHP）-模糊综合评价法对渤海海峡隧道的施工风险进行了识别和评价，认为渤海海峡隧道施工风险等级为三级，为高风险隧道。分析了影响风险等级的关键风险为隧道掘进机（TBM）主轴承制造风险、突水突泥风险和施工通风风险，并根据这些风险的特征提出了风险对策建议和尚需解决的关键问题，为渤海海峡隧道的决策提供参考，同时也为跨海隧道的规划、设计以及施工方案的制定提供参考。

关键词： 渤海海峡隧道     层次分析法     模糊评价     风险评估     风险对策    

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A Fast Evaluation and Research Method for Exploration Potential of Oversea Basins

Hong-quan Kang,Yun-hua Deng,Huai-cun Jia,Tao Cheng,Bo Bai

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2016年 第3卷 第4期   页码 338-342 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2016052

摘要： Oversea hydrocarbon exploration always faces some problems, such as multiple basin types, different exploration prospects, various exploration degrees, diverse data quantities and geological recognitions. This paper focuses on overseas basins with different exploration degrees and offers a new evaluation system and research method for fast evaluation and risk analysis on hydrocarbon potential. Based on the theory of probability, this new evaluation system evaluates each parameter and core accumulation factor with comprehensive and quantitative assignment, to accelerate geological evaluation. In addition, this paper suggests that source rock evaluation should be the core criterion in screening evaluation of poor-explored basins, and also proposes that both the exploration potential and geological recognition should drive the evaluation for basins with high exploration degrees. This new system and method, which is an effective system for fast basin evaluation, is suggested to be used in oversea evaluation and decision-making objectively, scientifically and efficiently.

关键词： geological risk analysis     probability model     evaluation factors     oversea exploration     hydrocarbon exploration    

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Cohort study of patients with Stevens–Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis in China: evaluationof risk models and new predictor of pulmonary consolidation on computed tomography

Yanhong Shou, Lu Yang, Yongsheng Yang, Xiaohua Zhu, Feng Li, Bo Yin, Yingyan Zheng, Jinhua Xu

《医学前沿（英文）》 2021年 第15卷 第4期   页码 585-593 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0817-2

摘要： Stevens--Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are rare but severe diseases. This study aimed to validate the predictive ability of risk models in patients with SJS/TEN and propose possible refinement in China. Patients in the Department of Dermatology of Huashan Hospital from January 2008 to January 2019 were included. Results showed that the severity-of-illness score for TEN (SCORTEN) had a good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), 0.78), and it was superior to auxiliary score (AS) and ABCD-10, which indicates age, bicarbonate level, cancer, dialysis, and 10% involved body surface area (AUC, 0.69 and 0.68, respectively). The calibration of SCORTEN (Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, = 0.69) was also better than that of AS ( = 0.25) and ABCD-10 ( = 0.55). SCORTEN and ABCD-10 were similar (Brier score (BS), 0.04 and 0.04) in terms of accuracy of predictions. In addition, the imaging appearance of pulmonary consolidation on computed tomography was associated with high mortality. Refined models were formed using the variables and this imaging appearance. The refined AS and ABCD-10 models were similar in discrimination compared with the original SCORTEN (0.74 vs. 0.78, = 0.23; 0.74 vs. 0.78, = 0.30, respectively). Therefore, SCORTEN showed good discrimination performance, calibration, and accuracy, and refined AS or ABCD-10 model may be an option when SCORTEN variables are not available.

关键词： Stevens–Johnson syndrome     toxic epidermal necrolysis     auxiliary score     ABCD-10     pulmonary consolidation    

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基于火灾动力学和概率统计理论耦合的建筑火灾直接损失预估

褚冠全,孙金华

《中国工程科学》 2004年 第6卷 第8期   页码 64-68

摘要：

以火灾成长概率和火灾发生后的过火面积为评价指标，探讨对建筑火灾过火面积的预估方法。依据火灾动力学和火灾发展过程中不同阶段的特点，将火灾由初期发展蔓延到整个防火分区的过程划分为4个阶段，采用概率论和事件树的分析方法，得到了每个阶段的火灾成长概率。根据不同阶段火灾的特点，求得了各阶段火灾的临界时间，并以此为基础对火灾发生后建筑物平均过火面积进行了预估。

关键词： 建筑火灾     火灾风险评估     事件树     概率     过火面积    

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Practical evaluation for water utilities in China by using analytic hierarchy process

Hong CHEN,Feng XIAO,Zhe BI,Ping XIAO,Dongsheng WANG,Ming YANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2015年 第9卷 第1期   页码 131-137 doi: 10.1007/s11783-014-0718-1

摘要： The risk of water utilities would include the water quality failure and the water quantity failure, from the source to the tap, including the catchment, treatment, distribution and the customer plumbing system. In this paper, we proposed a practical evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The hierarchical structure of the water utilities was established in terms of the fault event analysis from the past failure accidents. The severity of criteria was preset by the experts and the probability of criteria was determined by a modified CUWA-TSM sheet with the consideration of the actual situations of the supply system. The evaluation model was successfully performed by a case study. Although, the method in this paper may not be as good as the framework of WSPs, it has a great advantage compared to WSPs and TSM. The risk management can be applied through specific software packages with a user-friendly interface, which means it is easier to implement. In addition, it can point out the critical control points (CCPs) for the decision-makers. So we believe this method will improve and play a more and more active role in the development of the risk management in China water works.

关键词： analytic hierarchy process (AHP)     risk management     water quality failure     water quantity failure    

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布达拉宫古建筑的火灾风险分析

庄磊,陆守香,王福亮

《中国工程科学》 2007年 第9卷 第3期   页码 76-81

摘要：

利用火灾风险分析的方法对具有重要历史和文物价值的布达拉宫古建筑进行安全评估。以建筑自身状 况、着火源控制、消防设施配备、人员疏散设施以及消防安全管理等方面的现状为切入点，对布达拉宫重点区域作了火灾危险性调查。在此基础上，引入半定量的火灾风险分析方法，分析影响布达拉宫古建筑火灾风险水平的 各因素。对体现火灾风险重要性的各参数划分等级并对其进行赋值。通过计算布达拉宫古建筑部分重点区域的火 灾风险值，分析不同区域的相对火灾风险水平。最后提出一些火灾防治的对策。

关键词： 布达拉宫     古建筑     火灾风险分析     半定量     火灾危险度    

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Reliability analysis of urban gas transmission and distribution system based on FMEA and correlation operator

Su LI,Weiguo ZHOU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第4期   页码 443-448 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0336-4

摘要： In order to improve the safety management of urban gas transmission and distribution system, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was used to construct the reliability analysis system of the pipeline network. To solve the problem of subjectivity and uncertainty of the multi-expert decision making, the correlation operator was introduced into the calculation of the risk priority number (RPN). Using FMEA along with weight analysis and expert investigation approach, the FMEA evaluation table was given, including five failure modes, risk priority numbers, failure causes and effects, as well as corrective actions. The results show that correlation operator can directly process the linguistic terms and quantify the priority of the risks.

关键词： gas transmission and distribution system     risk evaluation     reliability analysis     failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA)     correlation operator    

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基于工期可控性的网络进度计划仿真评价方法研究

潘菲菲,王仁超,曹永雷

《中国工程科学》 2015年 第17卷 第1期   页码 143-150

摘要：

针对工程建设过程中常常通过资源重新配置或提高资源利用率来应对风险事件可能引起工期延迟的问题，提出了基于工期可控性的网络进度计划随机仿真评价方法，以资源配置和利用裕度作为活动的可控性衡量指标，同时考虑了风险事件发生时间不同导致的风险应对措施的可实施性不同的问题，通过对各个风险事件发生时间及其引起的活动持续时间延误、风险应对效果等进行随机仿真，从而对整个项目的工期分布进行模拟，评价编制的网络进度计划的合理性。算例表明：相对于传统的基于工期和基于因素的Monte-Carlo仿真评价方法，基于工期可控性的仿真评价方法得到的结果更为合理。

关键词： 网络进度计划；随机仿真；风险应对；工期可控性；评价    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Aerosol exposure assessment during reclaimed water utilization in China and risk evaluation in case of

期刊论文

风险矩阵法在武器装备采办风险评估中的运用

李忠民,魏一鸣,汤淑春,陈健

期刊论文

Detection of schedule delay risk of empirical construction projects

Tsegay GEBREHIWET, Hanbin LUO

期刊论文

Risk evaluation for the task transfer of an aircraft maintenance program based on a multielement connection

期刊论文

A novel method for reliability and risk evaluation of wind energy conversion systems considering wind

Seyed Mohsen MIRYOUSEFI AVAL,Amir AHADI,Hosein HAYATI

期刊论文

Evaluation of the relative risk of stroke in patients with hypertension using cerebrovascular hemodynamic

HUANG Jiuyi, WANG Guiqing, GUO Jiping, CAO Yifeng, WANG Yan, YANG Yongju, YU Xuehai

期刊论文

Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty

Zeying GUI,Chenglong ZHANG,Mo Li,Ping GUO

期刊论文

渤海海峡隧道TBM 施工风险评估及关键风险对策探讨

李达,洪开荣,谭忠盛

期刊论文

A Fast Evaluation and Research Method for Exploration Potential of Oversea Basins

Hong-quan Kang,Yun-hua Deng,Huai-cun Jia,Tao Cheng,Bo Bai

期刊论文

Cohort study of patients with Stevens–Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis in China: evaluationof risk models and new predictor of pulmonary consolidation on computed tomography

Yanhong Shou, Lu Yang, Yongsheng Yang, Xiaohua Zhu, Feng Li, Bo Yin, Yingyan Zheng, Jinhua Xu

期刊论文

基于火灾动力学和概率统计理论耦合的建筑火灾直接损失预估

褚冠全,孙金华

期刊论文

Practical evaluation for water utilities in China by using analytic hierarchy process

Hong CHEN,Feng XIAO,Zhe BI,Ping XIAO,Dongsheng WANG,Ming YANG

期刊论文

布达拉宫古建筑的火灾风险分析

庄磊,陆守香,王福亮

期刊论文

Reliability analysis of urban gas transmission and distribution system based on FMEA and correlation operator

Su LI,Weiguo ZHOU

期刊论文

基于工期可控性的网络进度计划仿真评价方法研究

潘菲菲,王仁超,曹永雷

期刊论文